As all signs continue to suggest that Crystal City will soon become home to at least half of Amazon鈥檚 new headquarters, affordable housing advocates are increasingly concerned that Arlington won鈥檛 force the tech giant to take action to mitigate the new office鈥檚 impact on housing prices in the county.
The company鈥檚 abrupt decision to split its 鈥淗Q2鈥� between Crystal City and New York City, as detailed in a , means that Arlington could see only half of the 50,000 new jobs Amazon promised along with the new headquarters. Nevertheless, fears linger that the arrival of even a portion of those workers would the county鈥檚 housing market.
County and state officials have steadfastly refused to release any details about their pitch to Amazon, including details on potential economic incentives for the company, or any community benefits designed to account for how a sudden influx of thousands of workers might drive up housing prices and demand.
Amazon has also been mum on how it might set up shop in Crystal City, but that the company would move into the thousands of square feet of vacant office space controlled by JBG Smith, the area鈥檚 largest property owner. The real estate firm was intimately involved in assembling Crystal City鈥檚 HQ2 bid, and Arlington officials have salivated over the prospect that the company could reverse the county鈥檚 in one fell swoop.
But should Jeff Bezos and company move right in to that vacant space, experts worry that the county won鈥檛 have the ability to extract any cash for Arlington鈥檚 main tool for spurring the development of reasonably priced homes: the , commonly known as the AHIF.
The program offers low-interest loans for new construction or redevelopment efforts to add more affordable housing in the county, and the county regularly requires developers behind high-density projects to contribute to the fund, in order to offset the impacts of that development on the rest of the county.
Yet Michelle Winters, the executive director of the Alliance for Housing Solutions, points out that Amazon could well avoid any such contribution, despite bringing thousands of highly paid workers to the area. After all, the company may simply prove to be a very, very large office tenant, and not plan any new construction in the county for years yet.
鈥淭hese fees are a major component of how we pay for affordable housing in Arlington,鈥� Winters told ARLnow. 鈥淏ut we just don鈥檛 know what kind of deal they鈥檙e potentially making with Amazon.鈥�
Through a spokeswoman, Arlington Housing Director David Cristeal confirmed that the 鈥渃ounty does not require AHIF contributions if a tenant moves into existing space without building anything new.鈥�
鈥淎 developer or building lessee would not need to contribute to AHIF if they move into an existing building without requesting additional density and/or a site plan amendment,鈥� Cristeal wrote. Site plan amendments, in general, are for major construction projects.
County Board Chair Katie Cristol agrees with Cristeal鈥檚 assessment, noting that the 鈥渕echanisms for achieving contributions to the AHIF are tools available to us during the land-use process鈥� only.
鈥淭he time at which we鈥檇 achieve something like that is as the building is built, not as a tenant moves in, which makes sense,鈥� Cristol said.
What that means for the county鈥檚 potential deal with Amazon, Cristol can鈥檛 say. She says the county still has yet to work out the details of just how the tech giant would move in to Arlington, making it a bit too early to speculate on technical questions like potential AHIF contributions.
However, she did point out that the whole point of Arlington luring Amazon in the first place is to generate new tax revenue, which the into the AHIF or other measures to preserve and create affordable housing.
鈥淭he reason to bring in new tenants to Arlington generally is they fund all those things,鈥� Cristol said. 鈥淲hether it鈥檚 the AHIF, housing grants, public schools, transportation costs鈥� It can be easy to lose sight of that.鈥�
Of course, there are plenty of experts skeptical of just how much Amazon鈥檚 arrival will actually juice county revenues, especially if Arlington signs off on hefty tax breaks to lure the company here in the first place. For instance, the government accountability group Good Jobs First, an intense Amazon critic, that localities can end up paying hundreds of thousands of dollars in subsidies for each job that a major new investor generates.
Kasia Tarczynska, a research analyst with Good Jobs First, notes that the county could always limit the tax breaks it offers the company and 鈥渦se that money for affordable housing, public transit and workforce development.鈥�
鈥淚n Boston, for example, as part of the incentive package, the city said it would invest $75 million in affordable housing, instead [of] giving that money to Amazon,鈥� Tarczynska wrote in an email.
But that鈥檚 where the county鈥檚 secrecy around its offer to the company, which has been criticized by , stymies further analysis.
Even still, Winters and Tarczynska both expect that the county could still work out a deal with Amazon that involves a contribution to the AHIF, or other affordable housing measures, even if it wouldn鈥檛 be strictly required by county ordinances.
鈥淚f I were Amazon, I would pay in more than what would ordinarily be required, because their own workers would benefit from more affordable housing in the community,鈥� Winters said. 鈥淭his is one of the biggest companies in the world鈥� I鈥檇 imagine it could be considered the cost of doing business for them.鈥�
Ben Beach, the legal director for the Partnership for Working Families, notes that local officials have negotiated for such concessions as large companies have sought to move in to their communities. The question on his mind is whether Arlington officials will do the same.
鈥淟ocal governments have a wide range of tools at their disposal; the question is simply political will,鈥� Beach wrote in an email. 鈥淎nd in this case, we know there is substantial public money involved, so there鈥檚 really no excuse for anything less than a gold standard community benefits package.鈥�
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