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Analysis: Here鈥檚 why Russia won鈥檛 agree to the Ukraine ceasefire proposal

On Thursday morning, Yuri Ushakov, a top Kremlin aide, said the ceasefire plan the United States and Ukraine agreed to 鈥済ives nothing to us.鈥

Hours later, Russian President Vladimir Putin came back and said, 鈥淲e agree with the proposals to cease hostilities.”

It seemed like a complete turnaround.

But let鈥檚 be clear 鈥 this is not the same as agreeing to the ceasefire. It’s a stall for time.

Moscow is in the middle of a military offensive to take back territory that Ukraine captured in Kursk last year. Sources tell 海角社区app, and it鈥檚 pretty clear, the Kremlin wants as much territory as it can get before the fighting ends.

“This cessation should be such that it would lead to long-term peace and would eliminate the original causes of this crisis,” Putin added.

The original cause of the crisis was Russia鈥檚 invasion on Feb. 24, 2022.

The 鈥渃auses鈥 Putin is referring to are the U.S. and the West providing Ukraine with arms and other support that made them strong enough to repel Russia鈥檚 attempts to take over Ukraine.

He wants to get rid of that assistance 鈥 something Ukraine will never agree to.

Why?

First, they want their territory back. They want the land Russia has taken illegally since this war began.

Second, they want the U.S. to resume military aid and intelligence sharing with them. President Donald Trump’s administration has already agreed to it, but they need that to be permanent.

The third element, and perhaps the most critical, is that Ukraine also wants security guarantees from the U.S. that it will not allow Russia to restart this war once Ukraine signs on the dotted line to end it.

Fourth on Ukraine鈥檚 list: They want a minerals deal with the U.S. to go through. Ukraine actually suggested that in September 2024, before Trump was reelected as president. But they want that deal to go through now; and they want it to go through on terms that are favorable to them.

The back and forth in Moscow tells us a lot about the tremendous pressure this proposal is putting on the Kremlin.

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J.J. Green

JJ Green is 海角社区app's National Security Correspondent. He reports daily on security, intelligence, foreign policy, terrorism and cyber developments, and provides regular on-air and online analysis. He is also the host of two podcasts: Target USA and Colors: A Dialogue on Race in America.

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