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Three new public opinion polls offer very contradictory glimpses into the race for Montgomery鈥檚 county executive.
Incumbent Marc Elrich is the only large-county executive in Maryland to face a tough primary this cycle. He is being challenged by a wealthy businessman, David Blair, County Councilmember Hans Riemer, and Gaithersburg resident Peter James in the July 19 contest.
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A survey by Progressives for Progress, a political action committee聽聽real estate interests, shows the race tightening. In this snapshot of the electorate, Elrich鈥檚 once-massive lead is down to six points.
Elrich was the choice of 33% of Democrats surveyed, followed by Blair at 27%, Riemer at 15% and Peter James at 1%. Nearly a quarter of the electorate was undecided.
In a June survey conducted by the same firm, Columbia-based Gonzales Polls, Elrich led Blair 45%-20%, with Riemer at 15%.
Pollster Patrick Gonzales said a significant shift among self-described 鈥渓iberal鈥� and 鈥減rogressive鈥� voters toward Blair accounted for most of the former health care executive鈥檚 surge. Although Blair attracted 60% of Democrats who view Elrich unfavorably, more than a third of undecided voters didn鈥檛 recognize the name 鈥淒avid Blair.鈥�
The firm surveyed 329 likely Democratic voters between June 30 and July 3; the margin of error was 5.5%. The Washington Post endorsed Blair just prior to the poll, on June 25.
A Garin-Hart-Yang survey commissioned by the Blair campaign also showed the race tightening. Elrich held a 28%-26% lead over Blair in this poll, with Riemer at 18% and 23% undecided. The pollster surveyed 504 Montgomery Democrats and was in the field July 5-6. The margin of error was 4.5%.
A third survey showed Elrich cruising to a second term.
Data for Progress,聽, surveyed 461 Democrats between June 30 and July 1. Elrich was the choice of 41% of voters contacted, compared for 20% supporting Blair and 18% backing Riemer.
Elrich held wide leads among every demographic group. He was rated favorably by 55% and unfavorably by 26% of those polled. A poll taken by the same organization a month ago had Elrich at 33%, with 19 point leads on each of his main rivals.
This poll had a margin of error of 5%. The winner of the primary is virtually certain to prevail in November.
The Data for Progress poll also had excellent news for gubernatorial hopeful Tom Perez, a former member of the Montgomery County Council and U.S. Labor Secretary during the Obama years.
Perez was the choice of 25% of Montgomery Democrats surveyed, far outpacing second-place finishers Wes Moore and Peter Franchot, both of whom had 15% support. Franchot is a Takoma Park resident who represented the county in the House of Delegates for 20 years. Moore鈥檚 running mate is former Del. Aruna Miller (D-Montgomery).
The other Democrats running in the primary finished in the low single digits.
New ads launch
Del. Brooke Lierman released a new ad this week with a formidable lineup of Maryland鈥檚 most powerful women.
House Speaker Adrienne A. Jones (D-Baltimore County), left, and Prince George鈥檚 County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D), right, are among a crowd of supporters for comptroller candidate Del. Brooke Lierman (D-Baltimore City) in a new ad. Screenshot.
The ad, titled 鈥�,鈥� features Prince George鈥檚 County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D), Speaker Adrienne Jones (D-Baltimore County), Sen. Delores Kelley (D-Baltimore County), Del. Jheanelle Wilkins (D-Montgomery), and more than a dozen others.
鈥淚鈥檝e worked with Brooke for years. She gets big things done for our families and communities,鈥� Jones says in the ad.
鈥淲e trust Brooke to be our champion and fight for a better future for every Marylander,鈥� Alsobrooks says.
The ad will be airing across the state on TV and digital platforms while a new聽聽from Sen. Jill P. Carter (D-Baltimore City) begins airing in the Baltimore media market.
Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Wes Moore was聽聽this week as well, featuring another powerful female figure: Oprah Winfrey.
Winfrey, who headlined a virtual fundraiser in June to support Moore, narrates the ad, which features a condensed breakdown of Moore鈥檚 life story and resume.
鈥淭he type of transformational leader that these times demand 鈥� that鈥檚 Wes Moore for Maryland governor,鈥� Winfrey concludes.
The ad will air on TV as well as digitally across Maryland, and is complemented by a longer radio spot, also narrated by Winfrey.
Earlier this week, the campaign launched another ad聽聽in Prince George鈥檚 County, including Alsobrooks.
