U.S. President Donald Trump wants to own Greenland. He has repeatedly said the United States must take control of the island, which is a semiautonomous region that’s part of .
Officials from Denmark, Greenland and the United States met Thursday in Washington and will meet again next week to discuss a , which is considering a range of options, including using military force, to acquire the island.
Trump said Friday he is going to do 鈥渟omething on Greenland, whether they like it or not.鈥�
If it’s not done 鈥渢he easy way, we’re going to do it the hard way,” he said without elaborating what that could entail. In an interview Thursday, he told The New York Times that he wants to own Greenland because 鈥渙wnership gives you things and elements that you can鈥檛 get from just signing a document.鈥�
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has warned that an American takeover of Greenland would mark , and Greenlanders say they don’t want to become part of the U.S.
This is a look at some of the ways the U.S. could take control of Greenland and the potential challenges.
Military action could alter global relations
Trump and his officials have indicated they want to control Greenland to enhance American security and explore business and mining deals. But Imran Bayoumi, an associate director at the Atlantic Council鈥檚 Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, said the sudden focus on Greenland is also the result of decades of neglect by several U.S. presidents towards Washington’s position in the Arctic.
The current fixation is partly down to 鈥渢he realization we need to increase our presence in the Arctic, and we don鈥檛 yet have the right strategy or vision to do so,鈥� he said.
If the U.S. took control of Greenland by force, it would , possibly an existential one.
While Greenland is the largest island in the world, it has a population of around 57,000 and doesn’t have its own military. Defense is provided by Denmark, whose military is dwarfed by that of the U.S.
It’s unclear how the remaining members of NATO would respond if the U.S. decided to forcibly take control of the island or if they would come to Denmark’s aid.
鈥淚f the United States chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops,鈥� Frederiksen has said.
Trump said he needs control of the island to guarantee American security, citing the threat from Russian and Chinese ships in the region, but 鈥渋t’s not true鈥� said Lin Mortensgaard, an expert on the international politics of the Arctic at the Danish Institute for International Studies, or DIIS.
While there are probably Russian submarines 鈥� as there are across the Arctic region 鈥� there are no surface vessels, Mortensgaard said. China has research vessels in the Central Arctic Ocean, and while the Chinese and Russian militaries have done joint military exercises in the Arctic, they have taken place closer to Alaska, she said.
Bayoumi, of the Atlantic Council, said he doubted Trump would take control of Greenland by force because it鈥檚 unpopular with both Democratic and Republican lawmakers, and would likely 鈥渇undamentally alter鈥� U.S. relationships with allies worldwide.
The U.S. already has access to Greenland under a 1951 defense agreement, and Denmark and Greenland would be 鈥渜uite happy鈥� to accommodate a beefed up American military presence, Mortensgaard said.
For that reason, 鈥渂lowing up the NATO alliance鈥� for something Trump has already, doesn鈥檛 make sense, said Ulrik Pram Gad, an expert on Greenland at DIIS.
Bilateral agreements may assist effort
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a select group of U.S. lawmakers this week that it was the Republican administration鈥檚 intention to eventually purchase Greenland, as opposed to using military force. Danish and Greenlandic officials have previously said the island isn’t for sale.
It’s not clear how much buying the island could cost, or if the U.S. would be buying it from Denmark or Greenland.
Washington also could boost its military presence in Greenland 鈥渢hrough cooperation and diplomacy,鈥� without taking it over, Bayoumi said.
One option could be for the U.S. to get a veto over security decisions made by the Greenlandic government, as it has in islands in the Pacific Ocean, Gad said.
Palau, Micronesia and the Marshall Islands have a Compact of Free Association, or COFA, with the U.S.
That would give Washington the right to operate military bases and make decisions about the islands鈥� security in exchange for U.S. security guarantees and around $7 billion of yearly economic assistance, according to the Congressional Research Service.
It’s not clear how much that would improve upon Washington’s current security strategy. The U.S. already operates the remote Pituffik Space Base in northwestern Greenland, and can bring as many troops as it wants under existing agreements.
Influence operations expected to fail
Greenlandic politician Aaja Chemnitz told The Associated Press that Greenlanders want more rights, including independence, but don’t want to become part of the U.S.
Gad suggested influence operations to persuade Greenlanders to join the U.S. would likely fail. He said that is because the community on the island is small and the language is 鈥渋naccessible.鈥�
Danish Foreign Minister Lars L酶kke Rasmussen in Denmark in August to complain that 鈥渇oreign actors鈥� were seeking to influence the country鈥檚 future. Danish media reported that at least three people with connections to Trump carried out covert influence operations in Greenland.
Even if the U.S. managed to take control of Greenland, it would likely come with a large bill, Gad said. That鈥檚 because Greenlanders currently have Danish citizenship and access to the Danish welfare system, including free health care and schooling.
To match that, 鈥淭rump would have to build a welfare state for Greenlanders that he doesn鈥檛 want for his own citizens,鈥� Gad said.
Disagreement unlikely to be resolved
Since 1945, the American military presence in Greenland has decreased from thousands of soldiers over 17 bases and installations to 200 at the remote Pituffik Space Base in the northwest of the island, Rasmussen said last year. The base supports missile warning, missile defense and space surveillance operations for the U.S. and NATO.
U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance told Fox 海角社区app on Thursday that Denmark has neglected its missile defense obligations in Greenland, but Mortensgaard said that it makes 鈥渓ittle sense to criticize Denmark,鈥� because the main reason why the U.S. operates the Pituffik base in the north of the island is to provide early detection of missiles.
The best outcome for Denmark would be to update the defense agreement, which allows the U.S. to have a military presence on the island and have Trump sign it with a 鈥済old-plated signature,鈥� Gad said.
But he suggested that’s unlikely because Greenland is 鈥渉andy鈥� to the U.S president.
When Trump wants to change the news agenda 鈥� including distracting from 鈥� 鈥渉e can just say the word 鈥楪reenland’ and this starts all over again,” Gad said.
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