WASHINGTON 鈥� Are you a college hoops junkie stressing over the finer points of your bracket? Are you a casual sports fan just getting caught up on college basketball season? Or are you a total novice, who didn鈥檛 realize that there are two different 鈥淪D State鈥� schools in this year鈥檚 field?
No matter who you are, we鈥檙e here to help with some last-minute bracket advice. Whether you鈥檙e looking for the smart first-round upsets, the Sweet 16 sleepers, or the Final Four favorites, we鈥檝e got guidance for you before the games start Thursday afternoon.
Listen to our discussion above, or just look below for a quick guide.
First-round upsets
No. 12 South Dakota State over No. 5 Ohio State
Dave Preston: Rested or rusty?聽The Buckeyes have played just once since Feb. 23. I’m going with the latter, especially against a red hot Mike Daum who averaged 26 points and shot 40 percent from three-point range during the Jackrabbits鈥� run through the Summit League Tournament.
Noah Frank: South Dakota State is a quality team headed to the tourney for the third straight year. They tested themselves against Kansas and Wichita State and won鈥檛 be in awe of the spotlight. And this game鈥檚 in Boise, home of NCAA Tournament upsets.
No. 11 St. Bonaventure over No. 6 Florida
DP: The backcourt tandem of Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley will prove to be too much for the Gators.
NF: The Bonnies couldn鈥檛 hit any shot for stretches of Tuesday鈥檚 play-in game and still beat UCLA. They get a Florida team capable of greatness (wins over Cincinnati, Gonzaga), but riddled with inconsistency (losses to Ole Miss, South Carolina and Vanderbilt).
No. 12 New Mexico State over No. 5 Clemson
DP: The Aggies rank fifth in the nation in rebounding margin and the Tigers have notoriously underperformed in the big dance.
NF: They may be a 12-seed, but NMSU is an elite, well-rounded defensive team, among the country鈥檚 best in blocks, steals and opponent field goal percentage. I like them to win two games.
Biggest upset picks
No. 14 Stephen F. Austin over No. 3 Texas Tech
DP: Yes, this game is being played in Dallas which is in Texas-which is the very state where Texas Tech resides.聽 But so does Stephen F. Austin … and the Lumberjacks rank fourth in the nation in turnover margin.
No. 15 Georgia State over No. 2 Cincinnati
NF: Cincinnati鈥檚 a terrific defensive team, but there鈥檚 one common thread in the Bearcats鈥� four losses: their opponents shot 40 percent of better from deep. Georgia State shoots 39.1 percent as a team, one of the best marks in the country. Ron Hunter鈥檚 squad shocked a defensive-minded Baylor squad in a low-scoring affair three years ago.
Sweet 16 sleeper (double-digit seed)
DP: St. Bonaventure, beating Stephen F. Austin to get there; Providence over UNC
NF: New Mexico State, beating Auburn to get there; Butler over Purdue
Final Four picks
DP: Virginia, Michigan, Purdue, Kansas
NF: Virginia, Gonzaga, West Virginia, Michigan State
