KAMPALA, Uganda (AP) 鈥� One figure looms large ahead of elections Thursday, although he is not on the ballot: the president’s son and military commander, Muhoozi Kainerugaba.
Kainerugaba, long believed to be the eventual successor, stood down for his father, President Yoweri Museveni, who is seeking that would bring him closer to five decades in power.
Yet Kainerugaba, a four-star general, as the chief enforcer of his father鈥檚 rule in this east African country. He is the top military commander, nearly two years ago after Kainerugaba told a political rally he was ready to lead.
Kainerugaba鈥檚 appointment as army chief put his political campaign on hold 鈥� a least, critics say, for as long as Museveni still wants to stay.
Many Ugandans are now resigned to the prospect of hereditary rule, once vehemently denied by government officials who said claims of a secret 鈥淢uhoozi Project鈥� for leadership were false and malicious.
Kainerugaba himself has been honest about his presidential hopes since at least 2023 and openly says he expects to succeed his father.
鈥淚 will be President of Uganda after my father,鈥� he said in 2023, writing on social platform X. 鈥淭hose fighting the truth will be very disappointed.鈥�
Military rise
The president鈥檚 son is more powerful than ever, his allies strategically deployed in command positions across the security services. As the presumed heir to the presidency, he is the recipient of loyalty pledges from candidates seeking minor political offices.
Kainerugaba joined the army in the late 1990s, and his fast rise to the top of the armed forces proved controversial.
In February 2024, a month before Kainerugaba was named army chief, the president officially delegated some of his authority as commander-in-chief to the head of the military.
Exercising authority previously reserved for the president, including promoting army officers of high rank and creating new army departments, Kainerugaba is more powerful than any army chief before him, said Mwambutsya Ndebesa, a political historian at Uganda鈥檚 Makerere University, adding that family rule appears inevitable.
鈥淗onestly, I don鈥檛 see a way out through constitutional means,鈥� he said.
Elections, he said, 鈥渋s just wasting time, legitimizing authority but not intended as a democratic goal… Any change from Museveni will be determined by the military high command.鈥�
Personality cult
With Museveni not saying when he would retire, a personality cult around Kainerugaba has emerged. Some Ugandans . Campaign posters of many seeking parliamentary seats often feature the emblem of Kainerugaba鈥檚 political group, the Patriotic League of Uganda. Speaker of Parliament Anita Among last year called Kainerugaba 鈥淕od the Son.”
The speaker’s comments underscored the political rise of Kainerugaba in a country where the military is the most powerful institution and Museveni has no recognizable successors in the upper ranks of his party, the National Resistance Movement.
Some believe Kainerugaba is poised to take over in the event of a disorderly transition from Museveni, who is 81. One critic, ruminating on Kainerugaba鈥檚 military rank, has been urging the son to depose his father.
鈥淚 have endlessly appealed to Muhoozi Kainerugaba to, at least, pretend to coup his dad, become the opposition hero, and accuse the old man of all the crimes the general Kampala public accuses him of,鈥� Yusuf Serunkuma, an academic and independent analyst, wrote in the local Observer newspaper last year.
鈥淪adly, Kainerugaba hasn鈥檛 heeded my calls thus far. That he is being pampered by his father to the presidency doesn鈥檛 look good at all.鈥�
Kainerugaba鈥檚 supporters say he is humble in private and critical of the corruption that has . They also say he offers Uganda the opportunity of a peaceful transfer of political power in a country that has not had one since independence from British colonial rule in 1962.
Threats and repression
In addition to opposing family rule, his critics point out that Kainerugaba has behaved badly in recent years as the .
He has threatened to behead , a presidential candidate who is the most prominent opposition figure in Uganda. He has said the opposition figure Kizza Besigye, should be hanged “in broad daylight鈥� for allegedly plotting to kill Museveni. And he has appeared to confound even his father, who briefly in 2022 when Kainerugaba threatened on X to capture the Kenyan capital of Nairobi in two weeks.
Wine that Kainerugaba’s army “has largely taken over the election.鈥� Wine said his supporters are the victims of violence, including beatings, perpetrated by soldiers.
In its most recent dispatch ahead of voting, Amnesty International said the security forces were engaging in a 鈥渂rutal campaign of repression.鈥� It cited one event at a rally by Wine鈥檚 party, the National Unity Platform, in eastern Uganda on Nov. 28, when one man died after the military blocked an exit and open fired on the crowd.
It was not possible to get a comment from Kainerugaba, who rarely gives interviews.
Frank Gashumba, a Kainerugaba ally and vice chairman of the Patriotic League of Uganda, said Wine was exaggerating the threat against him. 鈥淣obody is touching him,鈥� he said. 鈥淗e鈥檚 lacking the limelight.鈥�
The rare dissenter
Only one senior member of the president鈥檚 party has publicly pushed back against hereditary rule.
Kahinda Otafiire, a retired major general who is among those who were by Museveni鈥檚 side when he first took power by force after a guerrilla war in 1986, has urged Kainerugaba to seek leadership on his own merits rather than as his father鈥檚 son.
鈥淚f you say so-and-so鈥檚 son should take over from the father, his son will also want to take over from his grandfather. Then there will be Sultan No. 1, Sultan No. 2, and then the whole essence of democracy, for which we fought, will be lost,” Otafiire, who serves as Uganda’s interior minister, told local broadcaster NBS last year.
“Let there be fair competition, including Gen. Muhoozi. Let him prove to Ugandans that he is capable, not as Museveni鈥檚 son but as he, Muhoozi, who is competent to manage the country.鈥�
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