LONDON (AP) 鈥� British voters will cast ballots Thursday in elections that could hasten the end of troubled term and confirm that an increasingly fractured United Kingdom has entered an era of messy multiparty politics.
Starmer鈥檚 center-left Labour Party is expected to take a battering in elections for local authorities across England and for semiautonomous legislatures in Scotland and Wales.
With the prime minister鈥檚 popularity in the doldrums from a weak economy and repeated , rival parties are framing Thursday鈥檚 midterm votes as a referendum on Starmer and his 2-year-old government. 鈥淰ote Reform, Get Starmer Out鈥� is the campaign slogan of the hard-right party .
The next national election does not have to be held until 2029, but a wipeout on Thursday could tip a restive Labour Party into revolt against its unpopular leader.
Less than two years after winning a , 鈥淜eir Starmer has become a vessel for people鈥檚 disappointment (and) disillusionment,鈥� said Luke Tryl of pollster More in Common.
Polling day could be Starmer’s judgment day
Starmer’s popularity has plunged after since he became prime minister in July 2024. His government has struggled to deliver promised economic growth, repair and ease the cost of living 鈥� tasks made harder by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which has choked off oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
The prime minister has been further hurt by his disastrous decision to appoint , a scandal-tarnished friend of Jeffrey Epstein, as Britain鈥檚 ambassador to Washington.
Forecasters suggest Labour will lose well over half of the 2,500 seats it is defending on English local councils. It is expected to lose votes to parties on both left and right 鈥� especially to the in London and Reform UK in working-class, former Labour strongholds in England鈥檚 north.
鈥淭hese elections are a perilous, perilous moment for Keir Starmer,鈥� said Tony Travers, professor in the Department of Government at the London School of Economics. He said that after a series of policy U-turns and in an economy where 鈥渢here isn鈥檛 much money to spend on anything … his opponents are lining up.鈥�
Starmer has already survived in February, when some Labour lawmakers, including the party鈥檚 leader in Scotland, urged him to quit over the Mandelson appointment.
An election rout could trigger a snap leadership challenge from a high-profile rival such as Health Secretary , former Deputy Prime Minister or Greater Manchester Mayor . Any challenger would need the support of 80 lawmakers, one-fifth of the party in the House of Commons, to trigger a contest. In Burnham鈥檚 case he would have to win election to Parliament before he could take over.
Alternately, Starmer could face pressure from the party to set a timetable for his departure after an orderly leadership contest.
鈥淗is parliamentary party are unsure as to whether now is the right time to unseat him,鈥� said Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. 鈥淪o there might be a stay of execution.鈥�
But, Bale added, “it鈥檚 a case of when rather than if he goes.”
Polls point to fragmented politics and a fractured country
For decades, Labour losses would have been good news for its main rival, the right-of-center Conservative Party. But the Conservatives are tarnished by 14 tumultuous years in power that ended in 2024. In these elections, it鈥檚 Nigel Farage-led Reform UK, the left-leaning Greens and nationalist Welsh and Scottish parties that will likely be the main beneficiaries.
Travers said Britain is moving from being a 鈥渢wo-and-a-half party system鈥� 鈥� with the Liberal Democrats as the usual third party 鈥� 鈥渢o something more like a five-party one.鈥�
That is excellent news for Rhun ap Iorwerth, who leads Plaid Cymru (the Party of Wales) and stands a strong chance of leading that country鈥檚 semiautonomous government.
鈥淭he old politics is gone,鈥� he said. 鈥淟abour is not going to win this election.鈥�
A possible seismic shift on the horizon
Labour has dominated Welsh politics for a century and has held power in Cardiff since the Welsh government was established in 1999. Polls suggest Labour will be pushed into third place behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, who are running neck-and-neck.
A Plaid victory would give three of the four parts of the U.K. pro-independence leaders. Northern Ireland is governed by Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein in a power-sharing arrangement with the pro-British Democratic Unionist Party.
The Scottish National Party, which has governed in Edinburgh since 2007, says it will push for a new referendum on independence if it wins a majority on Thursday. Scottish voters rejected leaving the U.K. in a 2014 vote.
Plaid Cymru says a secession vote isn鈥檛 on the agenda in the next few years, though independence remains the party鈥檚 ultimate goal. In the short term, it wants more power to raise taxes and more control over how money is spent.
鈥淲e need a fundamental redesign of Britain,鈥� ap Iowerth said. 鈥淭his is an unequal union.鈥�
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